С 19 по 26 ноября Алехандро Морено (экс-президент World Association for Public Opinion Research) проведет курс лекций на тему выборных опросов, электорального поведения, эффект кампаний и политических установок в Латинской Америке.

Приглашаются все желающие.  Рабочий язык – английский.  Контактное лицо для регистрации и получения пропуска: Анна Алмакаева, тел. 8 495 772-95-90 доб. 12245, aalmakaeva@hse.ru

Алехандро Морено - профессор политических наук Автономного технологического института Мексики (с 1996 года), глава департамента центра изучений общественного мнения в газете «Реформа» (с 1999 года). Он закончил Мичиганский университет в Анн-Арборе, где получил свою докторскую степень в области политических наук в 1997 году. Проф. Морено является членом Мексиканского национального общества исследователей и главным экспертом «Всемирного исследования ценностей» и «Сравнительного проекта по изучению национальных выборов». Он также работал в качестве управляющего директора в проекте «Латинский барометр» с 2010 года.

Расписание

19 ноября,  9.30 – 10.00, Мясницкая 20, аудитория 125. Plenary talk at the 5th LCSR conference «Understanding Citizen Satisfaction with Democracy: Empirical Evidence from 18 Latin American Countries»

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23 ноября, 15.00-16.30, Мясницкая 9, аудитория 430. Value Change and Institutional Adaptation in Latin America

Abstract : The World Values Survey has tracked changes in value orientations among Latin American publics since 1981. Societal change in the region has been rapid and profound in many countries, going hand in hand with economic and political processes of liberalization and democratization. Institutional changes have taken place during this period, in many cases reflecting the changes in value orientations and in others reactions to them. The presentation documents some of the most important transformations in the values and beliefs of the Latin American mass publics and discuss how they relate to institutional adaptation. .

23 ноября, 16.40-18.10, Мясницкая 9, аудитория 430. Two Decades of Scholarly Work on the Mexican Voter

Abstract: Mexico’s long transition to democratic rule had important landmarks in national elections (1988, 1997, 2000), in which Mexican voters produced significant changes with their vote choices. They include the defeat in the 2000 presidential election of the political party that governed the country during seventy years, and its return to power in 2012. The presentation combines the findings of a growing literature on Mexican voting behavior based on survey research and author`s own scholarly work on the subject to depict how the Mexican Voter (both as an individual and as a collective electorate) has evolved in a context of higher political competition. Since the 1990s, partisan orientations had been shifting, defining the dynamics the emerging party system. As in many countries, party identification is the main drive of the vote in Mexico, and its transformation reflects the very nature of this country’s political life. The author documents and analyzes the evolving patterns of partisan orientations, their nature, their contents, their role in electoral behavior, as well as signals of increasing partisan polarization. In addition, he also looks at other long-term and short-term influences on the vote, including results from panel data to assess campaign effects. The aim of the study is not only to illustrate how a political system has changed over time, but also to signal the scholarly efforts to understand it at the same time. It is based on various published works, several national surveys and exit polls, and on an ongoing book project.

24 ноября. 15.00-16.30, Мясницкая 9, аудитория 430.Measuring Campaign Effects with Panel Data

Abstract: A common question in elections is whether campaigns matter. The answer from a growing literature in newly democratic contexts is yes, campaigns matter significantly. This is partly because the party systems are fluid and volatile, because partisan anchors tend to be relatively weak, giving way to more personalistic politics or less ideological structuring; and also because campaign dynamics are full of novelties and elements of surprise (including the use of new technologies) that may swing part of the electorates. Panel data are a useful tool to study campaign effects. Although panel designs are usually expensive and complex, the Mexico Panel Study has been conducted in three consecutive presidential elections in that country—2000, 2006, and 2012—offering a unique opportunity in new democracies to understand voters reasoning as campaigns unfold. The lecture is devoted to the results from these panel studies and develops a framework of analysis for campaign effects in new democracies. It also discusses the design and logistics of the Panel Studies, aiming to encourage their development in other new and emerging democracies.

24 ноября. 16.40-18.10, Мясницкая 9, аудитория 430. The Origins of Survey Research and their Lessons for Today’s Comparative Surveys

Abstract: In this lecture the authors relies on his own research on the origins of sample surveys in the 1940s in Mexico, a fascinating era of scholarly work with clear policy implications. Generally, historiographical work on surveys focuses on the American and European experiences, yet the Mexican early surveys have lots to offer for a timely reflection on survey methods, purposes, uses and applications to comparative research today. The lecture is based on a published article (http://m.ijpor.oxfordjournals.org/content/21/1/3.full.pdf) and an ongoing book project.

26 ноября. 13.30-14.00, Мясницкая 9, аудитория 430. The Accuracy of Election Polls in New Democracies

Abstract: Public opinion polls published during election campaigns are expected to provide voters with valuable information, such as how other voters think and how they intend to vote on Election Day. In this lecture the author analyzes the accuracy of election polls in a new democracy (Mexico) and discusses their methodologies and their transparency. He uses evidence from national and state elections from 1994 to 2015, accounting for more than 100 elections and more than 400 published polls conducted by almost 100 polling organizations. In addition to the measures of accuracy, he discusses the sources of error based on experimental design.

26 ноября. 18.00-19.30. Мясницкая 20, аудитория 101. Social and Political Trust in Latin America and Sub Saharan Africa.
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