Tatarstan is of Special Interest. LCSR Researchers about Their Visit to Kazan.

LCSR’s researchers visited Kazan to launch a new project devoted to study of ethnic conflicts on post-Soviet space. Eduard Ponarin, the Director of the Laboratory tells about this trip

Eduard Ponarin and Roberto Foa visited Kazan at April 18-22. Their trip was the first part of the study of causes of ethnic conflicts in post-Soviet states. Eduard Ponarin tells about the journey.

- Eduard, will you please start with giving us some general information about the project that was launched during this journey?

E.P. This project is supported by the World Bank by the application of Roberto Foa. The main question we are interested in is about conditions which determine or avert ethnic conflicts in different post-Soviet regions. We use in-depth interviews with some experts in these regions to collect the data. It should be noticed that some other ethnic-diverged regions of the former Soviet Union not only Tatarstan are objects of our interest in this study. To be more precise, these are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

- So, Kazan’ is only the first but not the only part of the project, isn’t it?

E.P. You are right, trips to all those countries of Middle Asia are also scheduled.

- What kind of research have you conducted during the trip?

E.P. We have collected 9 interviews with interesting people such as influential actors of Tatarstan politics, leaders and activists of religious and nationalist movements and organizations, and scholars who study nationalism in the Republic were among our informants.

- What were those interviews about?

E.P. First of all, we asked our informants to recall some events which took place during Perestroika (collapse of the Soviet Union). We were interested about hopes, desires and beliefs of people in Tatarstan in those times. The other questions were about causes that affected processes in the field of Russian-Tatar relationships. We also asked about that how informants evaluate national politics conducted by the administration of the republic in that moment. Finally, there was a prognostic question about possible scenarios for development of ethnic relations in the republic.

- Do you have any tentative results at the moment?

E.P. Yes, we can tell about some preliminary results. First of all, it should be noticed that Tatarstan is an interesting case of successful avoidance of ethnic conflicts. In the early 1990s it seemed to be similar to Chechnya on many political characteristics and initially we could see there the same scenario of nation-building. In some ratings of political separatism of Russian republics created by American scholars, Tatarstan even overran Chechnya.

However, the situation got more stabilized in Tatarstan. Our results show that a level of monopoly in political system was one of the main factors that provided political and ethnic stability in the Republic and prevented Chechen scenario. Mintimir Shaimiev had been the first Secretary of the Tatarstan Obkom during the late Soviet period, and he was remaining on the top after the collapse of the USSR. Actually, he had played with national movement but he used them as a factor in bargaining with the federal center both about his own and republican preferences in the newly created Russian state. When he achieved his goals in that bargaining, he stultified radical nationalists. In this respect there are some differences between Tatarstan and Chechnya. In Chechnia there were no indigenous politicians who achieved political leadership in the republic under the Soviet regime before Doku Zavgayev in 1989. However, he did not have serious support among national elites because he was a communist. Therefore, his tenure was short, and after he was overthrown in 1991 power in the Republic was diffused among warlords. It meant that there were no more political restrictions for ethnic violence.

Another important factor of Tatarstan’s success is sustainability of political institutions. When the states fail, politicians are frequently tempted to use ethnicity as a political resource in their struggle for power. A good example of such strategy is Kyrgyzstan. In Tatarstan elites also flirted with nationalists but potential treats of this flirt were diminished by the presence of power hierarchy created by Shaimiev in the republic even before it was constructed on the federal level by Putin.

- How you can describe a current situation in Tatarstan?

E.P. Russians and Tatars are more or less equal. The distribution of political offices that is the only sector where we may find a little priority for Tatars. Nevertheless, in general Tatarstan may be considered as a successful example of preventing ethnic conflicts. Status of Tatars has been increasing during the latter 20 years without discrimination of Russians. Even when political nationalism was widespread among Tatars, minority felt no treats for their well-being. As a result, political mobilization of ethnics groups was successfully stopped. Now the idea of equality between Russians and Tatars is commonly recognized. If such a belief will be settled in future, it may provide stability in the region for a long time.

- What may become challenging for ethnic equilibrium in Tatarstan in future?

E.P. One possible challenge may be due to the national politics of the Federal Government, especially concerning education and language. Another problem may be with salafis. On the one hand, the threat of salafis is dramatized by high-level political officers. The Salaf potentially may reach the status of dominant confession, but it depends on general economic development of Tatarstan. The republic resembles Gulf States in many respects, starting with the significance of oil sector, so it is possible that the same political and social trends will be observed here.

- What are your future plans for this project?

E.P. We are going to present our project and also say a few words about the first results at the regular seminar of LCSR. Then, I and Roberto are flying to Kazakhstan and in June Yegor Lazarev and Evgeniy Varshaver, researchers of the Laboratory, are going to the Fergana Valley to collect interviews with politics and experts in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

- Thank you very much for your interesting story!

E.P. Thank you too.

By Boris Sokolov