Does post-Soviet space have a common future?

Olga Kamenchuk, Director on International and Public Relations (VCIOM), presented her report “Does post-Soviet space have a common future?” on December 8, 2011. It was timed to the 20th anniversary of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Olga Kamenchuk, Director on International and Public Relations (VCIOM), presented her report “Does post-Soviet space have a common future?” on December 8, 2011. It was timed to the 20^thanniversary of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Olga spoke about a study conducted by VCIOM. It was conducted in 5 post-Soviet countries, namely Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan and Lithuania. The main question was if the citizens of those countries support the idea of reintegrating the Soviet space. The options offered to the respondents were the following: complete disintegration, partnership and integration in various forms.

One forth of respondents in Russia answered that the best option would be restoration of USSR in a willful manner with equal rights of countries. One third, however, is in favor of partnership without unification. 15% of Russians prefer a customs union with post-Soviet neighbors, 10% - an economical union. Only 8% would be happy with final disintegration. There is no difference between age groups in respect to various integration and disintegration forms. A typical Russian person in favor of reunification of the USSR is a male in retired age, has a not very high educational level (often no secondary school) and low income. 26% of Lithuanians would like to see their country as a part of the reunified USSR. Socio-demographic portrait of a Lithuanian answering so looks like the following. It is a non-retired man (close to retirement), with low income and a low level of education. On the contrary, a typical person from Lithuania who is in favor of disintegration (out of 13%) is a young woman (18-34 years old) with both high income and education levels. The situation in Belorussia is close to Russian and Lithuanian scenario.

The largest amount of USSR proponents was found in Kyrgyzstan.  A typical Kyrgyz willing his country to reunite with the USSR is a well-educated woman between 35 and 44 years of age with high income. On the contrary, younger men (18-24 years old) with low income and specialized secondary education are in favor of disintegration of the post-Soviet space. Azerbaijan represents a different case. People of age between 35 and 44 with low income and specialized secondary education prefer the reunification option, while the youngest group with both high income and educational levels is in favor of disintegration.

When it comes to partnership, every forth Belorussian, Kyrgyz and Azerbaijani chose this option. Every third Russian and every second Lithuanian did so. Azerbaijanis prefer to have a union with Turkey due to the similarity in languages and religion. The idea of integration projects is popular in Lithuania taking into account the fact that native Russian speakers comprise 8% of its population. Only minority of Kyrgyz and Belarusians are in favor of disintegration. 8% of Russians and 13% of Lithuanians are also for it. 20% of Belarusians and 20% of Kyrgyz would like to see their countries as parts of an Eurasian economic union. They also don’t reject the idea of a customs union with other post-Soviet countries. Lithuania and Azerbaijan are less optimistic about unions.

In whole, the number of supporters of the USSR reunification idea varies significantly among the surveyed countries (between 24 and 67%). Belorussia and Kyrgyzstan all the leaders in respect of the reunification proponents.