The Laboratory for Comparative Social Research announces the next regular seminar, which will be held in Moscow (Krivokolenny Pereulok, 3, room 3-333) on February, 14 at 17-00 p.m. Vladimir Kozlov (Associate Professor at the Institute of Demography, HSE) and Konstantin Kazenin (RANEPA) will deliver a report “Stalling second demographic transition in Post-Soviet space. The possible explanatory factors. Evidence from Daghestan”.

This research focuses on the possible explanation of the situation in the Muslim countries of the former Soviet Union with the stalling second demographic transition or without the signals to it beginning and even the evidence of the 1^st demographic transition stalling.

Comparative analysis of recent dynamics of fertility in post-Soviet countries shows that at least between the mid-2000s and the mid-2010s that dynamics was not uniform. The aim of the talk is to show that there is a group of post-Soviet countries which had a stable age distribution of fertility in the recent decade, ‘resisting’ the fertility postponement tendencies which dominated elsewhere in the post-Soviet space in that period.

Post-Soviet countries differ in the availability of data on fertility by age groups. Evidence against fertility postponement in the period under study is relatively solid for three of them: Azerbaijan (Transcaucasia), Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia). Also, we will look at the data for Chechnya and Daghestan (Russia). The data from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan will be demonstrated, but we can interpret them with certain cautious considering the lack of trust in the statistics from these countries.  In this research firstly we will show that the stalling in demographic transitions is not a statistical artifact.

On the second stage, we will demonstrate the preliminary results of the survey organized in Daghestan in 2018. At the mentioned part of the research, we test the hypotheses regarding the role of religiosity and social economic status in the characteristics of actual, desired fertility and timing of this process. The results demonstrate the heterogeneity of modern society in this republic. To conclude we discuss the possibility to generalize the results to the whole post-Soviet Muslim macroregion.

Everyone interested is invited!

Working language is English.

Videoconference with St. Petersburg office of the LCSR (room 303, 55-2, Sedova st.) will be provided. Guests from St. Petersburg are invited to make a request for a pass to the building to Olesya Volchenko (ovolchenko@hse.ru) by 12 am of the seminar’s day.

Guests from Moscow are invited to make a request for a pass to the building to Anna Almakaeva (aalmakaeva@hse.ru) by 12 am of the seminar’s day.

Also after the seminar, a videotape will be put up after the summary of the presentation.