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Important announcements 1

Program

7th LCSR Summer School «Bayesian Approach in Social Science» 

Instructor: Hannes Kröger, Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Berlin, Germany; European University Institute, Florence, Italy

Please note that the time table is indicative of the structure of the course, but not deterministic. Adjustments will be made according to the need of the participants and general progress. Practical exercises are part of almost all parts of the summer school and are therefore nor denoted separately.

Address
: Moscow, Armyanskiy pereulok, 4/2, room 209.

Day 1 — Introduction

09:30-10:00 / Registration
10:00-11:30 / Introduction; Philosophical differences between Bayes and Freq.
11:30-11:50 / Coffee break (room 212)
11:50-13:20 / The conditional probability of an event: Should Peter worry about his cancer diagnosis?
13:20-14:30 / Lunch
14:30-15:30 / Some unique features of Bayesian statistics: Prior and Posterior distribution
15:30-15:45 / Coffee break (room 212)
15:45-16:45 / How do prior, likelihood and posterior relate to each other?

Day 2 —  Bayesian regression and the use of prior information

10:00-11:30 / Examples of equivalency between Bayes and Frequentist, Introduction to Stan
11:30-11:50 / Coffee break (room 212)
11:50-13:20 / More convenient ways to use Stan
13:20-14:30 / Lunch 
14:30-15:30 / Using Bayesian statistics to account for measurement error
15:30-15:45 / Coffee break (room 212)
15:45-16:45 / Beyond simple versions of measurement error, two variables measured with error

Day 3 — Application 1: Including prior knowledge – Small samples and identification problems

10:00-11:30 / Limited data as a structural problem, what does Bayes offer as solution?
11:30-11:50 / Coffee break (room 212)
11:50-13:20 / Including prior information from a previous study using small samples
13:20-14:30 / Lunch 
14:30-15:30 / Updating current knowledge with results from a new study
15:30-15:45 / Coffee break (room 212)
15:45-16:45 / Updating current knowledge with results from a new study 

Day 4 — A brief look on Bayesian Estimation

10:00-11:30 / Closed form solutions and the advantage of MCMC
11:30-11:50 / Coffee break (room 212)
11:50-13:20 / Constructing an own tiny MCMC
13:20-14:30 / Lunch
14:30-15:30 / Diagnostics of model convergence
15:30-15:45 / Coffee break (room 212)
15:45-16:45 / A deterministic alternative to MCMC: INLA
17:00-18:30 / Consultations for Summer School participants (optional)

Day 5 — Application 2: Escaping the significance trap: Using degrees of support instead of tests and Bayesian updating of evidence

10:00-11:30 / The misuse of statistical significance testing
11:30-11:50 / Coffee break (room 212)
11:50-13:20 / Second generation p-values, type M and S errors
13:20-14:30 / Lunch
14:30-15:30 / Answering more interesting research questions in the Bayesian framework I
15:30-15:45 / Coffee break (room 212)
15:45-16:45 / Answering more interesting research questions in the Bayesian framework II
17:00-18:30 / Consultations for Summer School participants (optional)

Day 6 — Bayesian Evaluation of Informative Hypotheses (BEIH)

10:00-11:30 / What are informative hypotheses, how do we use them?
11:30-11:50 / Coffee break (room 212)
11:50-13:20 / BEIH I: Do dissociative identity disorder patients have amnesia?
13:20-14:30 / Lunch
14:30-15:30 / Second example of BEIH
15:30-15:45 / Coffee break (room 212)
15:45-16:45 / Summing up the virtues of the posterior distribution
16:45-17:00 / Coffee break (room 212)
17:00-18:30 / Special Lecture by Ronald Inglehart «The Silent Revolution in Reverse: The Rise of Trump and the Xenophobic Populist Parties»

Day 7 — Model checking and selection

10:00-11:30 / How do I know if my model is good model? Which of two models is the better one?
11:30-11:50 / Coffee break (room 212)
11:50-13:20 / Example of fitting competing models
13:20-14:30 / Lunch 
14:30-15:30 / Identifying problems in models I
15:30-15:45 / Coffee break (room 212)
15:45-16:45 / Identifying problems in models II
17:00-18:30 / Consultations for Summer School participants (optional)

Day 8 — Bayesian Model Averaging and Multiple Bias modelling

10:00-11:30 / Different sources of bias, how do we integrate them?
11:30-11:50 / Coffee break (room 212)
11:50-13:20 / Bayesian multiple bias modelling
13:20-14:30 / Lunch 
14:30-15:30 / Different model specifications, model averaging versus scenario plotting I
15:30-15:45 / Coffee break (room 212)
15:45-16:45 / Different model specifications, model averaging versus scenario plotting II
17:00-18:30 / Consultations for Summer School participants (optional)
18:30-21:00 / Reception

Day 9 — Bayesian approach to measurement invariance and multilevel modelling

10:00-11:30 / Approximate Bayesian measurement invariance as an alternative to exact MI
11:30-11:50 / Coffee break (room 212)
11:50-13:20 / Measurement invariance of human values across countries in ESS
13:20-14:30 / Lunch
14:30-15:30 / Bayesian Multilevel models I
15:30-15:45 / Coffee break (room 212)
15:45-16:45 / Bayesian Multilevel models II
16:45-17:00 / Coffee break (room 212)
17:00-20:00 / Participants' presentations

Day 10 — Final Session

09:00-11:00 / Summary of the Summer School


 

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